Canada West Foundation Blog

By: Roslyn Kunin

A new list of the world’s most livable cities has just been released by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). With three cities in the top 10 (Vancouver, Toronto and Calgary) and four in the top 20 (Montreal, ranked 16th) Canadians can be proud. Proportionally, western Canada can be even more proud. And Vancouver, the highest on the list for Canada, can be proudest of all, even if it is in the now familiar bronze position in world rankings.

Vancouver has a long history in the top ten of this list, often in the first position, but petty crime, traffic congestion and housing affordability have now pushed it down to third place.

But some readers may recall another headline just this past July saying that Vancouver was no longer in the top 10 of the world’s best cities. The confusion is due to the fact that the EIU’s list of “best” cities is different from its list of “most livable.” The list of cities examined for the “best” list is much shorter (70 compared to 140), and does not currently include Calgary or Vancouver. Toronto was the only Canadian city included in the best cities competition (it ranked eighth).

This points to the importance of understanding the methodology behind these lists.

For example, neither the livability index nor the best city index includes consideration of the opportunity to make a living. Since everyone who is not independently wealthy must take this into account, often before all other factors, when choosing where to live, this strikes me as a significant oversight.

This is the reason why Dacca in Bangladesh sees streams of incoming population in spite of the fact that it is at the very bottom of the livability list. Many Bangladeshis see Dacca as the place where they have the best economic prospects. And this strong in-migration no doubt contributes to reduced livability as congestion increases and infrastructure is strained.

Closer to home, Vancouver consistently outranks Calgary on the livability index, but does not appear to be keeping up when it comes to opportunities for making a living. Those who vote with their feet seem to be choosing Calgary. Over the last year in Vancouver, house prices, which have been largely unaffordable, have fallen 12%. This would not be consistent with a strong influx of population. Calgary, on the other hand, has seen house prices rise by 27% over the same time period.

Maybe we need an index that looks at making a living as well as enjoying living?

By: Robert Roach, VP, Research

In an article in today’s Globe and Mail, John Ibbitson argues that "One question will define national politics in our time: Are Western Canadians prepared to sacrifice for the sake of the nation, now that Ontario is less able to help?"

In addition to incorrectly implying that western Canadians chipping in to help the rest of the country is a new phenomenon, the question is the wrong one to ask.

The question Canadians should be focused on is how to ensure that the nation successfully adjusts to the evolving global economy. It is a mistake to start with a negative question that assumes the need for "sacrifice"—whatever that means—or puts pressure on the nation’s fault lines by immediately assuming that regional wealth redistribution is the solution to central Canada’s problems. This is the old way of thinking and this is not the time to bring it back.

The West knows what it is like to have its interests and economic prospects ignored and how damaging this is to the country and its potential. It will not, therefore, make the same mistake that central Canada has made in the past and be blithe to the blight of the other regions.

The West gets it—all regions benefit when all regions are heard and respected. The West will do its part, as it always has.

Ensuring Canada’s prosperity will happen naturally as the western economy continues to provide jobs and returns on investment. It will also happen at the political level through the equalization program, a strong tax base in the West that helps fill the national treasury, and by ongoing efforts by Canadians to ensure strong regional representation within the national government.

Ultimately, however, the economic recovery of Canada's industrial heartland will depend on the efforts of individual Canadians and their ability to harness the changes happening at a global level.

By: Michael Holden

The 2008-2009 recession and the still-fragile economic recovery in western Canada have amplified the urban-rural divide in regional labour markets. That large cities have been responsible for the majority of job creation in the West is hardly a recent development—the region’s nine Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) [1]have accounted for nearly 80% of all job growth in western Canada since 1997. However, the gap in employment growth between those nine cities and less populous areas has widened in recent years.

Not only did the West’s largest cities, on average, emerge from the recession relatively unscathed, but they have since posted much stronger job gains as well. From its pre-recession peak (November 2008) to the lowest point of the economic downturn (August 2009), western Canada lost just over 110,000 jobs. Even though our nine CMAs were home to about two thirds of all employment in the region, they accounted for just one third of those losses. Conversely, when the region began to add new jobs, it was mostly in the large cities. Since August 2009, there have been 119,000 positions created in western Canadian CMAs compared to 42,100 elsewhere in the region. In fact, smaller urban centres and rural areas have, on the whole, yet to recover their pre-recession employment levels. Meanwhile, the CMAs collectively did so in August 2010 and have been expanding ever since.

Of course, this is not to suggest that all the region’s big cities have been engines of job creation. Two cities—Vancouver and Edmonton—have been the primary drivers of employment growth, creating more jobs post-recession than all other CMAs combined. Regina and Kelowna have also posted impressive job gains, although their smaller population base means their affect on regional job creation is somewhat muted. At the other end of the spectrum, Calgary, Victoria and Abbotsford-Mission have all seen strong employment growth within the past 12 months, but there are still fewer people working in those cities today than before the recession began. In Saskatoon, there have been only modest job gains in recent months and employment remains well below pre-recession levels.

Even though most new jobs in western Canada are being created in big cities, this does not mean that employment prospects elsewhere in the region are necessarily bleak. In Manitoba, for example, employment growth outside of Winnipeg has been a lot stronger than in the province’s largest city since even before the recession began. Similarly, job creation outside of Alberta’s major urban centres has kept pace with the 4.3% average employment growth rate in Edmonton and Calgary over the past two years.

Moreover, as much as employment in western Canada’s CMAs has been rising, this increase has been counterbalanced by strong population growth; through the combined forces of urbanization, immigration and interprovincial migration, people continue to flock to our cities. Employment gains in our major centres since August 2009 has been just sufficient to absorb the growth in the urban working-age population in western Canada. Meanwhile, while job creation has, broadly speaking, been slower elsewhere in the region, so too has population growth.

These concurrent trends have created a favourable balance in western Canadian labour markets. While there remain pockets of weakness in some areas, the general situation is one where excess labour capacity in the region is moving to our major cities to absorb the growing demand for workers. As a result, the unemployment rate in urban and rural areas in western Canada has been virtually identical for several years.

1. In order of population size, western Canada’s nine Census Metropolitan Areas are: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Victoria, Saskatoon, Regina, Kelowna and Abbotsford-Mission.

We're currently seeking a Director of Fund Development.

About The Canada West Foundation
For forty years the Canada West Foundation has been the only independent and non-partisan think tank focused on public policy issues of vital concern to western Canada. Reporting to the Vice President of Operations and working closely with the President& CEO, the Director of Fund Development is responsible for developing and implementing the Foundation’s comprehensive fund development program, with a particular focus on major gifts and fund development opportunities.

Key accountabilities will include:

• Lead the development, design, implementation, reporting and evaluation of fund development strategies and activities for both annual and long-range plans. This includes annual gifts, planned gifts, grants, major and leadership gifts, sponsorships and partnerships to increase operating fund and endowment funds.
• Manage and steward relationships with funders, members and subscribers.
• Identify, cultivate, inform and involve potential donors. Solicit, recognize and steward donors.
• Coordinate and administer the fund development budget.
• Supervise, mentor and evaluate the Foundation’s Fund Development Coordinator.
• Develop and edit communications materials related to fundraising activities including website content, advertising, brochures, case for support, solicitation letters, thank you letters and funders’ newsletters.
• Represent the organization at external meetings and events.
• Organize and prepare meeting materials for the Development Committee of the Board.

Candidate Profile:
The successful candidate will have a post-secondary education in business, marketing, communications or a related field, ideally a minimum of five to seven years of fundraising experience, and appreciation of public policy and a strong interest in western Canada.

The candidate will have a track record for achieving fundraising goals, with the proven ability to work effectively with volunteers, as well as independently. He or she will have excellent organization, time management and planning skill; strong interpersonal skills; excellent written and oral communication abilities, and will be a strong team player with exceptional leadership, and a drive to achieve results. Experience with Raiser’s Edge is also an asset.

Applications should be submitted via email to “Human Resources” Canada West Foundation at: porteous@cwf.ca no later than 5pm Mountain Daylight Time on October 12, 2011. Only applicants who are selected for an interview will be contacted further. All applicants are thanked for their interest in the Canada West Foundation.

Policy Analyst
Canada West Foundation Head Office, Calgary AB

About the Role
For forty years the Canada West Foundation has been the only independent and non-partisan think tank focused on public policy issues of vital concern to western Canada. As a member of the Foundation’s research team you will lead the development and delivery of a range of public policy research projects. Research topic areas will include issues relating to the intersection between economic, energy, and environmental issues, and a range of other policy areas of critical importance to western Canada and to all Canadians.

Remuneration will be negotiated commensurate upon skills and experience of the successful candidate.
This is a full time position located in Calgary, Alberta. Some travel including across western Canada is required.

Key accountabilities will include:

• Showing creativity and innovation on critical economic, energy and environmental policy issues and trends.
• Working both collaboratively and independently as a member of the research team to formulate evidence based, practical and thoughtful public policy recommendations based on research results.
• Provide mentorship to interns within the team to ensure delivery on high quality project deliverables.
• Communication of research results to drive impact for a variety of audiences including the media, the research community, the business sector, policy-makers and the public both orally and in writing, through authoring major research reports, presentations, blogs, and op-ed articles to a high standard.

Selection Criteria:

1. Strong research analysis and critical thinking skills. Relevant tertiary qualifications and work experience in policy research, public policy, economics, social sciences and/or related fields are required.
2. A detailed understanding of the key public policy challenges facing western Canada in the Canadian and North American context.
3. The ability to manage complex research projects and achieve contract outcomes on time and on budget.
4. Strong communication, negotiation, networking and stakeholder management skills.
5. Ability to lead projects, work in teams and supervise others.

Applicants should provide:

• Cover letter addressing how you meet the selection criteria (no more than 2 pages in length).
• Resume including education and employment history.
• Two references, including phone and email contact details, who we may contact regarding your application.
• A writing sample (eg; a report, briefing note or article you have written).

Applications should be submitted via email to Human Resources at: porteous@cwf.ca no later than 5pm Mountain Standard Time on September 6, 2011. Applicants may be asked to provide academic transcripts as part of the selection process. Only applicants who are selected for an interview will be contacted further. All applicants are thanked for their interest in the Canada West Foundation.

By: Jacques Marcil, Senior Economist

This is the season of budgets and baseball spring training. While there is no true link between the two, one could not help think of Alberta Finance minister Lloyd Snelgrove as a relief pitcher.

Snelgrove was brought in last month as an emergency caretaker minister of Finance in replacement of Ted Morton, who resigned to join the PC leadership race. (One of the worst-kept secrets in Alberta is that Morton essentially resigned because his views on government cost-cutting were too drastic for outgoing Premier Ed Stelmach’s taste.)

There were no real surprises in the February 24 Alberta budget. Usually, the absence of surprises is considered to be a positive sign. Is this the case here? Yes and no.

On the expense side, the 2010 approach is somewhat repeated: sustained financing for health, education and other “social” ministries, with modest cuts to the other ministries to offset this. This results in program spending increases of 0.5%, 1.3% and 3.1% over this year and the two following years.

On the revenue side, nothing much is done except some service fee increases. However, Snelgrove expects Alberta revenues to grow solidly on their own, reflecting very positive forecasts for economic growth and for natural resource royalties. The latter are expected to jump by 23% and 16% in 2012-13 and 2013-14 respectively. (This is not impossible, but who knows?)

As a result, the province’s deficit gets erased by 2013-14, one year later than originally planned. This delay is not bad in itself given the severity of the recession in Alberta. The problem is that the balancing act is accomplished by drawing down most of the Sustainability Fund—a meager $1.7B is left in it by that date, one-tenth of what was in the Fund in 2009-10.

So the Alberta government has little margin of maneuver and lots of hope hanging on energy price forecasts. Past experience has taught Albertans that those prices are full of surprises, positive and negative. We might have reached the point where Alberta taxpayers have had enough of this uncertainty.

You can’t have your cake and eat it too—Albertans have long enjoyed low taxes, but if they want to enjoy the same level of services as other parts of the country they will have to start considering other sources of revenue for their provincial government.

Energy royalties are nice but they are irregular and unpredictable. The province pays for most of the steadily-growing cost of its services using rollercoaster energy money. If Alberta needs to reform its tax system, it should do so. Taxes are not an ideological issue, they are a practical one. Decisions on tax policy should be fact-based, period.

To return to my baseball analogy (a very agreeable thought when the windchill factor is -36ºC outside), walks are “bad things” but even the best pitcher sometimes has to issue an intentional walk depending on the game situation. No one likes taxes, but sometimes we need them.

Given the unpredictability of Alberta politics (a misnomer until a few years ago), maybe now is not the time to start complex discussions on what size of government Albertans want, or about what taxes are needed for its proper functioning.

Thinking again about it, maybe it is the right time.

by Robert Roach, Senior Researcher and
Director of The West in Canada Project

Like Canadians in general, western Canadians tend to be uncomfortable when it comes to tooting their own horn. It is worthwhile, therefore, to take a moment and celebrate some of the incredible strengths possessed by the West as outlined in the latest edition of the Canada West Foundation’s “State of the West” report.

Western Canada is often described as a small economy. The way we talk, you would think the region’s economic output was on par with Estonia or some other tiny place (no offence to our Estonian friends, of course). In fact, if western Canada is placed on the list of the world’s largest national economies, it would be eighteenth (Canada is eleventh).

Western Canada’s economy is much smaller than, for example, the US or German economies, but it is hardly a bit player on the world stage. At well over half a trillion US dollars in 2008, western Canada’s economic output is nothing to snuff at.

Western Canada is also a major player when it comes to international trade. The West exported just over $180 billion US dollars worth of goods in 2008. This would place it twenty-sixth on the list of the world’s leading export countries (Canada is once again just out of the top ten in eleventh spot). We may not be the Sidney Crosbie of international trade, but we are still playing in the big league.

When it comes to the natural resources the global economy is hungry for, western Canada is home to some of the largest reserves and industries in the world. Alberta’s oil sands place it second only to Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves and Saskatchewan is one of the world’s largest suppliers of uranium and has the world’s largest reserve of potash (a key ingredient in the fertilizer that helps feed the world).

The region’s stock of human capital is also very impressive with over 1 in 5 western Canadians holding a university degree. When university and college education is combined, the western provinces have higher education levels than places like Germany, France, the UK, and Australia. BC’s education level is second only to Ontario’s and is higher than in both the US and Japan.

Western Canada is a magnet for international and domestic migrants. BC’s net international migration rate is more than double the average for the European Union. Between 1971 and 2008, 671,543 more people moved to the West from another part of Canada than left. Vancouver and Calgary appear on the Mercer ranking of the cities with the best quality of life and the urban West is growing at a nice pace.

Western Canada is a cosmopolitan, dynamic, growing, economically powerful and highly educated place. It is ideally situated as Canada’s gateway to the growing economies of Asia, it is blessed with abundant natural resources and it is a major driver of the Canadian economy and, increasingly, of the Canadian identity.

None of this is meant to gloss over the many challenges faced by the region. If the West is to take full advantage of its current assets, it has a lot of work to do. The global economy is getting more competitive, not less. Social challenges such as the high unemployment and low education levels that dog the West’s Aboriginal population and the constant need to innovate and step up our economic game remain critical concerns.

Nonetheless, it is worth stepping back from both the day-to-day and long-term challenges and celebrate our strengths. Too much modesty can result in missed opportunities. Western Canadians need to see that their region has the skills to compete in the big league and recognize the importance of honing those skills so they can continue to do so.

Download State of the West 2010.

Robert Roach is Senior Researcher and the Director of the Canada West Foundation’s The West in Canada Project. Canada West Foundation is the only think tank dedicated to being the objective, nonpartisan voice for issues of vital concern to Western Canadians.

by Robert Roach

There are many ways to ruin a cocktail party. One tried and true way is to bring up the environment: “Are you aware that the pork in that pig-in-a-blanket you are eating creates toxic run-off that contaminates our rivers?” “No, but it sure is tasty!”
This is why we did not start this series of articles on changing Canada’s economic DNA with a piece on the importance of thinking and acting green. However, while it may be a buzz kill, addressing the environmental piece of the economic competitiveness puzzle is critically important.

This is especially true because we are nowhere near where we need to be when it comes to environmental efficiency (see what we mean—what a buzz kill). We have an economy that is really good at exploiting the environment and we are trying to stick this square peg into a round environmental hole. There has been progress: recycling has become commonplace, dumping industrial waste directly into rivers  has been banned, and we have greatly reduced the use of ozone-depleting hairspray. Despite these and other minor adaptations, our basic economic DNA is black and red (as in black and red ink) rather than green.

The point here to not to be ashamed of what we have accomplished as a civilization. The modern economy and its roots in transforming the land and harvesting the earth’s resources have taken us out of the stone age. For most of us, at least, this is a good thing.

Nonetheless, we don’t want to become an economic dinosaur staring into a future where we are just a bunch of bones in a museum. We have to move beyond tinkering at the margins of how our economy operates and embrace a completely different approach to how we weld our economy with the short-, medium- and long-term health of the planet.

The first thing we have to admit is that this will not be easy and it will not come without short-term costs. It will pay off, but like anything worth having, it requires sacrifice. There will be winners and losers, and the losers are not going to be happy. If we plan for this rather than think that the transition to a green future will be painless, our chances of success will be much greater.

The second thing we need to understand is that one-off reactions to the crisis of the day—be it greenhouse gases, oil spills, birds getting chewed up in wind turbines, or the disappearing rainforest (remember when we cared about that?)—will not get the job done. It is like training a duck not to quack—you might have some success, but it would be better to change the duck’s genetic code so it has no need to quack.

As an economy, we need to change the basic equation of exploiting land, labour and capital to a much more complex algorithm that incorporates the value of ecological goods and services, establishes the primacy of creativity and innovation, and erases the notion that “protecting” the environment is either a cost or a moral obligation. Sustainable practices must be as natural as breathing. If they are only the result of laws, guilt or religious fervour, they will always be on shaky ground and open to fierce opposition

We need business practices, investment strategies, production systems, accounting methods, entrepreneurial norms and market signals that integrate both the efficiencies that can be gained from green economics and its respect for the natural processes that sustain life.

A change of this magnitude is a massive undertaking, and for this reason alone it cannot be centrally controlled. It has to happen at the level of the individual firm, investor, entrepreneur, worker, parent and teacher.

Two things make this transformation increasingly likely: first, there are many potential advantages to a greener economy including lower production costs and higher profits; new jobs in the green services sector; a decrease in onerous government regulation and the related compliance costs; and less money spent on reacting to environmental challenges (thus leaving more money in the hands of consumers).

Second, we know more today that we used to. Some will say that we have only rediscovered what some ancient cultures already knew, but either way, the next generation of Canadian entrepreneurs, investors, managers and workers are much more savvy about the need for, and value of, greater balance between harvesting the earth’s bounty and ensuring that it continues to be bountiful.

Canada can take the lead. Or, we can become the dinosaur as Germany, the US, and yes, even China, push us out of the way.

This article is based on a forthcoming book entitled “Rewriting the Code: Changing Canada’s Economic DNA” by Todd Hirsch and Robert Roach. Robert Roach is the Senior Researcher at the Canada West Foundation and Todd Hirsch is the Senior Economist at ATB Financial.

Trying to get a handle on BC business conditions now is a little bit like nailing jelly to the wall.

The recent economic numbers look pretty good with employment and output both staying in positive territory and doing better than in Canada as a whole.

The unemployment rate, at over 7%, is higher than we might like, but still better than the national rate. The number of people working has been rising, with unemployment only staying high because better times are encouraging more people to enter the workforce. Problems of labour shortages are now just beginning to arise and, so far, only in very specific cases. For example, CP Rail is now very short of workers in the smaller towns in both BC and Alberta with 200 vacancies.

The BC list of major projects continues to grow as the number of new projects being added to the list exceeds in both in quantity and value those that are completed. Even though not all the proposed projects are firmly nailed down yet, this picture is very different from the post-Olympic falling off a cliff that some were forecasting.

To the great relief of all Vancouver and Lower Mainland home owners and to the great disappointment of baby boomers elsewhere who were hoping to retire here, housing prices seem to have stabilized in the metro areas of BC at levels not too far below what they were at their frenzied peak. This means that the net worth of households and individuals is back where it was before the last recession.

Retail sales (including new car sales) and wholesale trade are moving up, but not as strongly as they were in boom that preceded the last recession.

Finally, most small and medium sized businesses and professional practices are managing to keep busy and are optimistic about the future. This last point should be treated with caution. Operators of smaller businesses are almost always optimistic.

However, there is more happening in BC than the relatively good news outlined above. Tourism is one sector that has declined, with US visitors down about 5% and overseas tourists down 1%. After a brief up tick, lumber prices are soft again, seeing no signs of life yet in the US housing market. Though still basically healthy, prices for energy and other commodities have declined from their peaks. Those who deal with new stock issues or new housing developments are not being overwhelmed with work.

Apart from or maybe in spite of all the numbers, there has been a change in how people feel—the animal spirits that economists talk about that determines how we act. People and businesses are being more cautious now that markets are not continuously rising and few jobs are going begging. Families are being more careful and are thinking about saving rather than spending. Look for a very modest increase in back-to-school sales this year.

Businesses of all types and sizes are seeing their customers becoming much more price and value conscious. No longer can a supplier tell a customer or a client “good, fast, cheap—pick two”. People are learning from Wal-Mart, one of the biggest buyers as well as one of the biggest sellers in the world. In order for Wal-Mart to offer its customers the lowest possible prices, it must get the lowest possible prices from its suppliers and will examine suppliers’ books to insure that their costs and margins are such that they are earning just enough to be able to stay in business.

All purchasers, whether they are deficit-ridden governments, more cautious consumers or businesses that are themselves under pressure, are now sharpening their pencils to get the maximum value for the lowest price. Whether in construction or consulting, very competitive bidding is now the norm. Professions are not immune. Corporations are now questioning their law firms about the venerable institution of billable hours and seeking a more certain and cost effective way to get their legal work done.

It is no longer a seller’s market whether you are providing goods, services or your own time in a job. But there is still a reasonable market out there for the goods and services that our businesses can turn out if we are efficient and effective. Big and small organizations in BC and Canada are now getting back to business and showing how productive they can be. It was the lack of productivity and cost-effectiveness that has hindered Canada’s competitiveness in the past. Today’s market challenges and the positive way the business sector is responding to them should result in great increases in productivity and competitiveness in the future.

Posted by: Roslyn Kunin

We are now accepting applications for two positions in the Jim Hume Student Internship Program for the September to December 2010 term.  The application deadline is 5pm (MDT) Friday August 20, 2010. Only applicants selected for an interview will be contacted.

Two internship positions are available. The internships are open to current students and recent graduates (up to 18 months) of a Canadian post-secondary institution, with majors in economics and/or political science. Successful applicants will:

• Have advanced analytical, research and communication skills, and the ability to conduct research and analysis on major energy, environmental and economic challenges in the western Canadian context.

• Have a passion for public policy and be able to work collaboratively to develop robust, evidence based, and thoughtful public policy recommendations for the benefit of Canada.

The internship starts on September 8, 2010 and ends on December 23 2010 (16 weeks).  The interns will work out of the Canada West Foundation’s Calgary office, will be paid $18/hour and will work 37.5 hours per week.

Please send the following items BY EMAIL to William Kimber with “FALL INTERNSHIP” in the subject line:

• cover letter outlining why you are interested in doing an internship at a public policy think tank, and how your capabilities fit the internship requirements above;
• resume, including awards and publications; and
• an unofficial transcript of your grades.

The program is designed to provide post-secondary students with a rewarding experience working at one of Canada’s leading public policy research institutes.

Posted by: Jason Azmier